Analytical Model for Risk Analysis of Economic Benefits of Investment Projects and its Application

This paper analyzes many uncertain factors in economic benefits of investment project and the existing risks. With regard to the hiberarchy and decomposability of this complex system, economic benefit is decomposed into several subsystems, including benefit subsystems and cost subsystems. Triangular distribution, simple and clear to present data, is used to demonstrate the risk analysis of those subsystems. Based on the above analysis, the sub-normal distribution model is adopted to describe the economic benefits of investment project. This paper also builds a sub-normal distribution model for the transferring effect of risk elements of subsystems on the economic benefits of Investment project. Finally, an example is presented to validate the feasibility of this model.