Forecasting the adoption of emerging energy technologies: Managing climate change and evolving social values

With the linkage between fossil fuel use and climate change now almost universally accepted, addressing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) has become a subject of great social urgency and technological challenge. A variety of models exists or are under development for analyzing the role of more sustainable systems, such as renewable energy technologies, in mitigating climate change. However the direct cost of these technologies is generally higher than that of fossil fuel systems. Methods are needed to more fully account for externalities, societal impacts, and social values associated with fossil fuels versus sustainable energy systems. This paper presents a conceptual model targeted to inform better energy policy and management of energy resources to optimize for climate change. The model builds on Linstone´s multiple perspectives: technical, organizational and personal by attempting to forecast technology development along these perspectives. Thus factors enabling faster and better adoption by consumers, and faster and efficient development by organizations are evaluated by taking the potential technological improvements into account.