HEV diffusion forecast by key device analysis

Recently, the automotive industry has encountered a significant technical turning point. This was brought on by the shift from the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) to the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and electric vehicle (EV). At this time, in order to maintain its competitive advantage, an automotive manufacturer has to adjust product development speed to match the diffusion speed of new products. In a prior paper [5], on a case study of consumer electronics, the author established a new method to estimate the diffusion speed of new products by making use of key device analysis to measure development speed. Key devices are the components or “building blocks” that have a major influence on the quality, performance, and cost of a product. The purpose of this investigation was to apply the key device analysis method to the HEV in its early diffusion stage, to predict diffusion speed, and to identify other issues that will hamper further diffusion.