Title :
Two-stage prediction method of typhoon position by fuzzy modeling. Fusion of outline prediction and detailed prediction
Author :
Hiraoka, Tsuguteru ; Maeda, Hioroshi ; Ikoma, Norikazu
Author_Institution :
Fac. of Eng., Kyushu Inst. of Technol., Kitakyushu, Japan
Abstract :
The persistency and climatology method (PC method) is well known as a method for prediction of typhoon position based on a time series analysis technique. Since the PC method predicts typhoon position only by its trajectory, the prediction accuracy is not sufficient in the high latitudes around Japan. We propose a 2-stage prediction method of typhoon position that uses the peripheral wind field of the typhoon. The first stage classifies typhoon into a category of 4 outline directions and selects a detailed prediction model corresponding to the category. In the second stage, the detailed model predicts typhoon position by peripheral wind field
Keywords :
climatology; fuzzy logic; fuzzy set theory; pattern classification; storms; weather forecasting; detailed prediction; fuzzy modeling; outline prediction; peripheral wind field; persistency and climatology method; time series analysis technique; two-stage prediction method; typhoon position; Accuracy; Character recognition; Numerical analysis; Pattern recognition; Prediction methods; Predictive models; Time series analysis; Trajectory; Typhoons; Wind forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 1999. IEEE SMC '99 Conference Proceedings. 1999 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Tokyo
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-5731-0
DOI :
10.1109/ICSMC.1999.816616