Electric vehicles — A ‘one-size-fits-all’ solution for emission reduction from transportation?

Electric vehicles are broadly considered to have a great potential for reducing emissions from transportation and are sometimes presented as a `one-size-fits-all´ solution. A simulation study was performed to forecast least emitting options for single vehicles as well as for total light duty vehicle fleets in the Canadian provinces of Québec, Ontario and Alberta for the year 2025. The study used the Plug-in Electric Vehicle - Charge Impact Model (PEV-CIM), a software tool developed by Natural Resources Canada for evaluating the impact of PEVs on the electricity grid, on fuel costs, and on emissions. Simulation results from PEV-CIM indicate that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVS) offer a great potential to drastically reduce GHG emissions in the provinces of Québec and Ontario thanks to the low emission intensity of their electrical grids. However, the slow turnover of the light duty vehicle fleet limits the overall emission reduction of the provincial fleets for the year 2025 to only 5-12%. Power generation in the province of Alberta is dominated by the use of coal and natural gas. Its GHG emission intensity is higher than the threshold of 720 gCO<sub>2</sub> eq per kWh at which the emissions of BEVs and PHEVs are equal to those of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). For this province, HEVs will give the lowest emissions. Electric vehicles do reduce GHG emissions compared to gasoline vehicles. However, a `one-size-fits-all´ does not exist as local conditions greatly influence which type of electric vehicle (HEV, PHEV, or BEV) is the best option. Besides, short term solutions may differ from those for the long term.