Market potential for electric vehicles in the German commercial passenger transport sector

Commercial transport is often referred to as an early market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). In comparison to private transport, commercial transport with passenger cars is characterized by higher vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) forming an important factor for a quick pay-off of PEVs. In this paper, we analyze multi-day driving profiles of German passenger cars and light-duty commercial vehicles from the commercial transport sector. These commercial vehicles amount to almost two thirds of the annual vehicle registrations in Germany and thus form an important market segment. Our analysis shows that about 30 % of German commercial vehicles could be economically operated as PEVs in 2020. However, it becomes apparent that energy and battery prices have a high impact on the future market share of plug-in electric vehicles in this segment.