Financial evaluation of Renewable Energy Source production in microgrids markets using probabilistic analysis

Restructuring of power markets has helped in the penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) in the distribution networks. Mircogrids are Low Voltage (LV) networks that usually operate interconnected with the main Medium Voltage (MV) network but, in case of emergency, can run autonomously. In such networks Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are foreseen to have rather high penetration mainly photovoltaics (PV) and small scale Wind Turbines (WTs). One of the emerging issues is the financial evaluation of RES production so that the installation of RES is beneficial in open market conditions. In this study, the expected income for owners of wind turbine and PV is evaluated using actual prices from a spot market exchange, probability distributions of wind velocity and solar irradiation and methods of probabilistic costing analysis.