Study on Application of Exponential Smoothing Method to Water Environment Safety Forecasting

Exponential smoothing method is the main quantitative prediction methods, using exponential smoothing method to forecast the development trend of water environment security would provide available scientific basis to guiding the water environment safety guarantee work. The main factor of exponential smoothing method is smoothing coefficient, which directly affect the accuracy of prediction. Based on the illustration of prediction model of exponential smoothing method, the principles of selection in initial smoothing value and smoothing coefficient, choose double exponential smoothing method as the predict method to predict the trend of water environment safety in Zhenjiang. The predict results can be interpreted that error between predict value and evaluation values is the least when α=0.8, and in the next three years, the water environment security situation of Zhenjiang will present an improvement trend.