Title :
Statistical verification of numerical weather prediction models for quantitative precipitation forecast
Author :
Wardah, T. ; Kamil, A.A. ; Hamid, A. B. Sahol ; Maisarah, W.W.I.
Author_Institution :
Fac. of Civil Eng., Univ. Teknol. MARA, Shah Alam, Malaysia
Abstract :
In this study, the potential of two numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in quantitative precipitation forecasting over a tropical region is examined. The precipitation forecasts produced from the Fifth Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models are statistically verified with the observed rain in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. The statistical verification indicates that the root mean squared error (RMSE) increases for higher rainfall rate, though the models have performed quite satisfactorily in certain cases during heavy rainfalls that cause flood. It is also shown that the longer the rainfall forecast duration, the higher the probability of detection (POD) and the lesser probability to be the false alarm ratio (FAR).
Keywords :
floods; probability; rain; statistical analysis; weather forecasting; Fifth Generation Penn State-NCAR Mesoscale model; Kelantan River Basin; MM5 model; Malaysia; WRF model; Weather Research and Forecasting model; detection probability; false alarm ratio probability; flood; heavy rainfall; numerical weather prediction model; quantitative precipitation forecast; rainfall forecast duration; rainfall rate; root mean squared error; statistical verification; tropical region; Floods; Forecasting; Numerical models; Predictive models; Rivers; Weather forecasting; MM5; Numerical weather prediction (NWP); WRF; quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF);
Conference_Titel :
Humanities, Science and Engineering (CHUSER), 2011 IEEE Colloquium on
Conference_Location :
Penang
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-0021-6
DOI :
10.1109/CHUSER.2011.6163865
