A new approach to load forecast: Incorporating climate, economic and social behavior predictions

Author

Pinto, Leontina M V G ; Szczupak, Jacques ; Macedo, Luiz H. ; Szczerbacki, Carolina F. ; Pascon, José ; Almeida, Carlos ; Semolini, Robinson

Author_Institution

Desenvolvimento e Consultoria Ltda., Rio de Janeiro

fYear

2005

fDate

27-30 June 2005

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

6

Abstract

This paper presents the first step towards a novel concept for the Load Forecast for dynamic markets under constant evolution. Te proposed method does not rely on statistic models designed to reproduce the past. Instead, we make extensive use of intelligent reasoning able to explain consumers´ behavior and its dynamics. The obtained results show not only the ability to predict the future load but - more important - to explain it. The approach may thus be used to identify (and correct) errors due to unexpected or unpredictable scenarios, adjusting to new situations and transforming past data into real information.

Keywords

load forecasting; power markets; climate prediction; dynamic markets; economic predictions; intelligent reasoning; load forecasting; social behavior predictions; Consumer behavior; Economic forecasting; History; Humans; Input variables; Law; Load forecasting; Power generation economics; Predictive models; Tellurium; Evolutionary Markets; Load Forecast; Scenario Prediction;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power Tech, 2005 IEEE Russia

Conference_Location

St. Petersburg

Print_ISBN

978-5-93208-034-4

Electronic_ISBN

978-5-93208-034-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PTC.2005.4524742

Filename

4524742