Title :
Forecasting of undesired events in computer system with help of dynamical model
Author :
Abdenov, Amirza Zh ; Zarkumova-Raikhel, Ramilya N.
Author_Institution :
Novosibirsk State Tech. Univ., Novosibirsk, Russia
Abstract :
We suggest using linear discrete stochastic model in the form of states space for forecasting number of incidents in enterprise system of informational security (IS). Algorithm for the model is described. In accordance with the model and with the Kalman filter equations calculation of estimates for forecast and filtration with respect to the number of IS incidents is performed.
Keywords :
Kalman filters; organisational aspects; security of data; stochastic processes; IS incidents; Kalman filter equations; computer system; dynamical model; enterprise system; informational security; linear discrete stochastic model; state space; undesired event forecasting; Computational modeling; Computers; Electronic mail; Forecasting; Predictive models;
Conference_Titel :
Actual Problems of Electronics Instrument Engineering (APEIE), 2012 11th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Novosibirsk
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-2842-5
DOI :
10.1109/APEIE.2012.6629045
