Simulation and Design of Early Warning System of Cultivated Land Change in Urban Fringe Area

With regard to the increasingly prominent issue of cultivated land protection, it is necessary to establish a fast and effective early warning system that can have a real-time monitoring on cultivated land protection status. This thesis takes urban fringe area with prominent changes in cultivated land as the survey area, on the basis of comprehensively application database, System Dynamics (SD) and Cell Automaton (CA) models, ACCGIS secondary development platform and computer network, develops cultivated land change simulation in urban fringe and designs early warning system, and describes in detail its structure, model and application functions. The system provides the functions of data inquiry, pre-processing, simulation, early warning, spatial analysis, drafting and tabulation, etc. The establishment of the system is conducive to realizing the process monitoring and risk forecasting of cultivated land protection, and provides informational support for the scientific decision-making and supervisory management of land management department.