A study on grey calamity predicting model of lead-time

With the intensifying of competition in the market, lead-time has become an important means for enterprises to gain competitive advantage. To keep the stabilization of lead-time, an effective method to predict and control lead-time must be found. Based on grey calamity theory, the grey calamity prediction model of lead-time is established. Then the model is applied in calamity prediction of lead-time in auto industry, and the future calamity time is obtained which has an important reference value. Furthermore, the validity of the model has been proved. The case study shows: the supply uncertainties of importation parts and the uncertainties of machining capability of the motorcar corporation are the key factors that influence the exactitude of delivery-time. Thus, by means of utilizing the prediction results, we can awake the core manufacture enterprises adjust their order methods of importation parts and manufacture system before the appearance of abnormal value to ensure that the orders can be finished on schedule. Half a year later, on-time delivery rate has increased from prior 82% to the current 95%. The level of service has been improved greatly. Thus, an effective way is provided for the control of lead-time.