Prediction model and algorithm of flight delay propagation based on integrated consideration of critical flight resources

Initial flight delays caused by weather or any other factors may result in downstream flight delays. The downstream flights may be delayed due to awaiting the aircraft and crew resources of the upstream flights or competing with delayed flights for the airport runway resource. Only one or the other of these two factors that may lead to flight delay propagation has been considered in existing studies. This paper presents a novel prediction model and corresponding algorithm of flight delay propagation, in which both the critical flight resources and the critical airport resources are considered, to overcome the limitations of existing prediction models. Simulation shows that the model and algorithm can provide an effective method for the quantificational prediction of flights delay propagation.