Title :
A computer simulation to explore the application of Bayes theorem in antenatal care
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Reproductive Physiol., St. Bartholomew´´s Hospital Med. Coll., London, UK
Abstract :
Combining antenatal risk factors to generate an overall probability of risk to the fetus in an individual case presents many problems. A computer simulation using Bayes theorem provides a means for evaluating different approaches to this problem. Some of the findings of this simulation are unexpected, in particular: (1) the distribution of probabilities in a series of cases is highly skewed; and (2) the relationship between numbers of risk factors and overall risk followed a sigmoid curve. These observations are of considerable potential significance in the clinical prediction of fetal risk.<>
Keywords :
Bayes methods; digital simulation; medical computing; patient care; Bayes theorem; antenatal care; clinical prediction; computer simulation; foetal risk; probability distribution skewing; risk factors; sigmoid curve;
Conference_Titel :
Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, 1988. Proceedings of the Annual International Conference of the IEEE
Conference_Location :
New Orleans, LA, USA
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-0785-2
DOI :
10.1109/IEMBS.1988.95178
