Cost at Risk in R&D Project Risk Management

The most popular tool used in the industry for project management is the earned value management (EVM). The major disadvantage of EVM is that it is a post-event method, and not very efficient in forecasting the exceeding cost during the project. In order to make EVM more efficient in pre-event exceeding cost risk recognition, the proportion of earned value over the budget has been suggested. The formula presented in Reference [10] has been modified in this paper, the example results show the modified formula´s simplicity when underlying forecast during the project. The significant difference has been found out between normal distribution and beta distribution, it is further requested to improve this model by the selection of p and q .