Scenario Forming and Evaluation Analyzing

Meta-synthesis approach (MSA) proposed by Prof. Qian is an oriental system methodology for complex problem solving. The essential idea of MSA can be simplified as "confident hypothesizing, rigorous validating", i.e. quantitative knowledge arises from qualitative understanding. Accordingly, creative thinking as a useful and practical technique for complex problem solving, is the unity of divergent thinking and convergent thinking which appear alternatively in the whole creative process of human thinking. In this paper, a computational scheme based on MSA is applied to solve the complex problems. Firstly, group argumentation environment (GAE) as a computerized tool is used to facilitate expert divergent thinking process (meeting) on the concerned topics and form scenario or hypotheses based on qualitative MSA. Then, a quantitative evaluation model had been building to analyze the centralization of the different scenarios, which can used to measure the efficient of different argumentation scenario.