Reliability assessment based on D-S evidence theory

For many high-reliability products, reliability assessment relying on the tests has become unrealistic, but expert experience shows its advantage to the above problem. In order to resolve the problem that how to fuse the expert experience, we convert the expert experience into the reliability probability density distribution, determine the knowledge framework and basic probability assignment function based on the definition of consistent degree, fuse the basic probability distribution based on D-S fusion rule, and get the fusion distribution weights, finally obtain the reliability of the product. This method has been validated by an example, and shows perfect.