DocumentCode :
3514034
Title :
Complex systems reliability estimation considering uncertain component lifetime distributions
Author :
Wang, Peng ; Jin, Tongdan
Author_Institution :
Hamilton Sundstrand Power Syst., San Diego, CA, USA
fYear :
2009
fDate :
20-24 July 2009
Firstpage :
395
Lastpage :
398
Abstract :
This paper studies the uncertainties in component reliability estimation and their impact on system reliability prediction. Monte Carlo simulations (i.e. sampling-based methods) are used to investigate the correlation between system complexity and component lifetime distributions. We focus on the applications where component lifetimes can be modeled by Weibull distributions, but their parameters involve estimation uncertainties. Our research indicates, regardless of the component lifetime distributions, the system lifetime asymptotically approaches to the exponential distribution as the number of components in the system increases significantly.
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; Weibull distribution; reliability theory; Monte Carlo simulations; Weibull distributions; complex systems reliability estimation; component lifetime distributions; exponential distribution; sampling-based methods; system reliability prediction; uncertain component lifetime distributions; Exponential distribution; Life estimation; Lifetime estimation; Parameter estimation; Power system reliability; Power system simulation; Shape; System testing; Uncertainty; Weibull distribution; Monte Carlo simulation; Weibull distribution; estimation uncertainty;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Reliability, Maintainability and Safety, 2009. ICRMS 2009. 8th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Chengdu
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4903-3
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4905-7
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/ICRMS.2009.5270165
Filename :
5270165
Link To Document :
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