Long-term Forecast of Chinese Urban Residential Average Per Capita and Stratum Subdivision Estimation

Applicable "multi-model weight number generating integration method" has been proposed based on the gray forecast model. Studied to 2050, the main conclusions of Chinese urban average per capita residence change tendency are the average per capita residence built-up area will achieve 27.16 m² at the end of 2006; it will achieve 30.51 m ² in 2010; 36.63 m² in 2020 and 43.61 m² in 2030. In 2040 it will be 46.71 m² with a turning point. Hereafter the numerical value goes to sTab. Before 2025, non-city residence area has been counted is one of the main factors of average per capita residence increasing. Total amount of dismantle and build will meet its balance after 2045. After 2020, main character of city residential stratum might be summarized as "increase in upper layers and decrease in bottom layers"