Fuzzy systems application to electric short-term load forecasting. II. Computational results

Author

Al-Kandari, A.M. ; Soliman, S.A. ; El-Hawary, M.E.

Author_Institution

Electr. Technol. Dept., Coll. of Technol. Studies, Shuweikh, Kuwait

fYear

2003

fDate

7-9 May 2003

Firstpage

131

Lastpage

137

Abstract

For pt.I see ibid., p.125-30 (2003). In the first part of this paper, different fuzzy load models are developed for short-term load forecasting. The first model is a harmonic model with fuzzy coefficients. It is a function only of the hour in question, and it is suitable for summer and winter season. The second model is a hybrid model. It is a function of both the hour in question and the temperature at that hour and the previous hours. The coefficients of this model are fuzzy. Both models are implemented to predict the load of a large utility company. The obtained results show that when using such fuzzy models, the variations in the load power can be accounted for, since the estimated load power is within upper and lower limits.

Keywords

fuzzy set theory; load forecasting; power system harmonics; electric short-term load forecasting; estimated load power; fuzzy coefficients; fuzzy load models; harmonic model; hybrid model; summer; winter; Data mining; Educational institutions; Fuzzy systems; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Power supplies; Predictive models; Radio access networks; Temperature; Wind speed;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power Engineering, 2003 Large Engineering Systems Conference on

Print_ISBN

0-7803-7863-6

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/LESCPE.2003.1204692

Filename

1204692