The influence of rainfall, vegetation, elephants and people on fire frequency of miombo woodlands, Northern Mozambique

Miombo woodlands are ecologically and socially important in southern Africa, in which, anthropogenic dry season fires occur every year. This study explores the influence of several environmental factors on fire frequency of Niassa National Reserve in northern Mozambique. Our hypotheses are: 1) There are significant intra-annual differences in biomass according to fire frequency; 2) Fire frequency is influenced by the prevailing environmental conditions. We used a time series analysis and statistical t-test of MODIS-derived Enhanced Vegetation and Normalized Difference indices to address hypothesis 1. A stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to tackle hypothesis 2. At the beginning of the fire season, biomass is higher in places with higher fire frequency. Land cover is the strongest predictor of fire frequency, but elephant density, annual rainfall and human corridors are also important.