Communication Network Availability Predictions Based on Measurement Data

Published data describing the probability distributions of data communication system reliability parameters such as availability are very sparse. This paper describes a set of data collected in order to model communication line availability by monitoring operational communication systems. Probability distribution functions for single line availabilities and for the durations of failures are given. A heuristic model for estimating availabilities for more complex systems is presented along with computer simulation data validating the accuracy of the model. The results presented make possible more realistic availability predictions for common types of networks than have previously been computable.