Title :
Risk assessment of short-term hydropower scheduling under price uncertainty considering correlation between adjacent intervals
Author :
Li He ; Yi Quan ; Ming He
Author_Institution :
Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for High-efficient, Hubei Univ. of Tech, Wuhan, China
Abstract :
It is important for hydropower plants owner in the electricity market to work on the errors of forecasted prices. The paper established the profits maximization model, which treated the price as stochastic and considered correlation between adjacent intervals. We apply a risk assessment tool to research on the risk of the surplus profit. To investigate whether a generation schedule is profitable or not, we apply Monte Carlo method to simulate influence of price uncertainty on the utilities. Finally, a realistic case study was made and some relevant results were concluded.
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; correlation methods; economic forecasting; hydroelectric power stations; power generation economics; power generation scheduling; power markets; pricing; profitability; risk management; stochastic processes; Monte Carlo method; adjacent intervals; electricity market; forecasted prices; hydropower plants; price uncertainty; profits maximization model; risk assessment tool; short-term hydropower scheduling; Correlation; Equations; Hydroelectric power generation; Monte Carlo methods; Optimal scheduling; Standards; Uncertainty; Adjacent Intervals; Monte Carlo method; hydropower planning; risk assessment; uncertainty;
Conference_Titel :
Industrial Electronics Society, IECON 2014 - 40th Annual Conference of the IEEE
DOI :
10.1109/IECON.2014.7048812