Title :
Principal Component Analysis for Evaluation of Wind Ramp Event Probability
Author :
Heckenbergerova, Jana ; Musilek, Petr ; Marek, Jaroslav ; Rodway, James
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Math. & Phys., Univ. Pardubice, Pardubice, Czech Republic
Abstract :
During last few decades wind energy has become one of the fastest growing renewable sources. Recent research interest in wind power forecasting community is focused on wind ramps, sudden changes in wind power output. Conventional ramp prediction methods derive future ramp estimates from power forecast series. We suggest to analyze real wind power series or other weather parameters searching for specific patterns and dependencies signalizing forthcoming wind ramp event. In this paper, principal component analysis of wind speed time series is presented. Analyzed power production and wind speed data were collected from August 2011 to July 2012 on sample wind farm located close to Let bridge, AB Canada. Sensitivity of analysis is defined by length of selected time frame. Frequency tables for first three principal components are used to evaluate conditional probability of forthcoming wind ramp event. Advantage of proposed methodology compared to conventional methods is that numerical weather prediction (NWP) model producing wind forecasts is not required.
Keywords :
principal component analysis; probability; time series; wind power plants; NWP model; conditional probability; numerical weather prediction model; power production; principal component analysis; wind farm; wind ramp event probability; wind speed data; wind speed time series; Forecasting; Principal component analysis; Production; Wind forecasting; Wind power generation; Wind speed; Conditional probability; Confidence ellipsoid; Principal component analysis (PCA); Wind power; Wind ramp event; Wind speed;
Conference_Titel :
Electrical Power and Energy Conference (EPEC), 2014 IEEE
DOI :
10.1109/EPEC.2014.50