Quantification of operating power reserve through uncertainty analysis of a microgrid operating with wind generation

This paper addresses the quantification of power reserve through uncertainty analysis of a microgrid operating with wind generation. The considered uncertainty came from the wind and load forecasting. The assessment has been done one day ahead and for the next 24 hours. Several Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been designed in order to assess the wind and load uncertainty of prediction. Then, the Net Forecasted Demand prediction error is analysed with probabilistic tools. According a risk level, the quantity of power reserve is calculated. A risk/reserve characteristic is proposed to help the electrical system operator to take decisions.