DocumentCode :
3588242
Title :
The fuzzy nature of climate change scenarios maps
Author :
Gay Garcia, Carlos ; Sanchez Meneses, Oscar
Author_Institution :
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico
fYear :
2014
Firstpage :
863
Lastpage :
873
Abstract :
The most important uncertainties present in the global change scenarios are the climate sensibility, represented by the wide variety of GCM´s available, and the uncertainty that comes from the different GHG emission scenarios. Starting from a fuzzy climate model constructed with concentrations of GHG, obtained as a result of linear emission pathways, and output temperatures obtained with a deterministic simple climate model (MAGICC) it has been determinate the output fuzzy set of global delta T thresholds such as 1, 2, 3 and 4 °C for 2100 and a medium sensibility of 3.0 °C/W/m2. These fuzzy sets are used for assign uncertainties to values of temperature increase and precipitation change percentage taken from a map of regional climate change and for interpret the map in a fuzzy sense. We present some maps of temperature increase and precipitation change percentage for Mexico.
Keywords :
Mathematical model; Meteorology; Ocean temperature; Sensitivity; Temperature sensors; Trajectory; Uncertainty; Climate Change Uncertainties; Fuzzy Temperature and Precipitation; Linear Emission Pathways;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH), 2014 International Conference on
Type :
conf
Filename :
7095125
Link To Document :
بازگشت