Methodology for Estimation of Dynamic Response of Demand Using Limited Data

The paper presents a methodology for estimation of dynamic response of aggregate load at distribution network buses by taking into account daily variation in demand composition and generic dynamic responses of different types of load. Dynamic load models for different load categories obtained from field or laboratory measurements or through appropriate mathematical modeling are used in combination with hourly load composition at the given bus. The load composition is derived based on past demand surveys, and daily loading curves for different classes of customers. Uncertainties in both dynamic load models/responses of individual loads and load compositions at different times of the day are modeled probabilistically. With established dynamic signatures of different load categories and load compositions at different times of the day, Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate probabilistic real and reactive power responses, including ranges of variation of these responses, for every hour of the day for a given or anticipated mix of demand.