Investigation of a lead indicator of technological innovations

Innovation is fundamental to economic growth. To innovate, it is necessary to identify at an early stage technologies that can become the seeds of innovation and to ensure sufficient resources are allocated to such technologies. However, it is very hard to identify technology seeds. Many people in the public and private sectors desire such a forecasting tool. In this research, trends in the number of papers, patents, and newspaper articles were investigated. The research suggested that the number of patents is a more appropriate way to gauge trends than is the number of papers or newspaper articles as trends become evident more quickly in patents. Through further analysis, implications for patent forecasting were derived. These could be a useful guideline for decision makers in the public and private sectors.