Title :
Wind Power Forecasting Using Neural Network Ensembles With Feature Selection
Author :
Song Li ; Peng Wang ; Goel, Lalit
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Electr. & Electron. Eng., Nanyang Technol. Univ., Singapore, Singapore
Abstract :
In this paper, a novel ensemble method consisting of neural networks, wavelet transform, feature selection, and partial least-squares regression (PLSR) is proposed for the generation forecasting of a wind farm. Based on the conditional mutual information, a feature selection technique is developed to choose a compact set of input features for the forecasting model. In order to overcome the nonstationarity of wind power series and improve the forecasting accuracy, a new wavelet-based ensemble scheme is integrated into the model. The individual forecasters are featured with different mixtures of the mother wavelet and the number of decomposition levels. The individual outputs are combined to form the ensemble forecast output using the PLSR method. To confirm the effectiveness, the proposed method is examined on real-world datasets and compared with other forecasting methods.
Keywords :
least squares approximations; neural nets; regression analysis; wavelet transforms; wind power plants; PLSR method; ensemble method; feature selection technique; forecasting methods; forecasting model; generation forecasting; neural network; partial least-squares regression; wavelet transform; wavelet-based ensemble scheme; wind farm; wind power forecasting; wind power series; Least squares methods; Neural networks; Predictive models; Wavelet transforms; Wind forecasting; Wind power generation; Feature selection; neural networks (NNs); partial least-squares regression (PLSR); wavelet transform; wind power forecasting (WPF);
Journal_Title :
Sustainable Energy, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TSTE.2015.2441747