Stochastic-Predictive Energy Management System for Isolated Microgrids

This paper presents the mathematical formulation and control architecture of a stochastic-predictive energy management system for isolated microgrids. The proposed strategy addresses uncertainty using a two-stage decision process combined with a receding horizon approach. The first stage decision variables (unit commitment) are determined using a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming formulation, whereas the second stage variables (optimal power flow) are refined using a nonlinear programming formulation. This novel approach was tested on a modified CIGRE test system under different configurations comparing the results with respect to a deterministic approach. The results show the appropriateness of the method to account for uncertainty in the power forecast.