• DocumentCode
    3606517
  • Title

    Are neural networks able to forecast nonlinear time series with moving average components?

  • Author

    Rocio Cogollo, Myladis ; Velasquez, Juan David

  • Author_Institution
    Univ. EAFIT, Medellin, Colombia
  • Volume
    13
  • Issue
    7
  • fYear
    2015
  • fDate
    7/1/2015 12:00:00 AM
  • Firstpage
    2292
  • Lastpage
    2300
  • Abstract
    In nonlinear time series forecasting, neural networks are interpreted as a nonlinear autoregressive models because they take as inputs the previous values of the time series. However, the use of neural networks to forecast nonlinear time series with moving components is an issue usually omitted in the literature. In this article, we investigate the use of traditional neural networks for forecasting nonlinear time series with moving average components and we demonstrate the necessity of formulating new neural networks to adequately forecast this class of time series. Experimentally we show that traditional neural networks are not able to capture all the behavior of nonlinear time series with moving average components, which leads them to have a low capacity of forecast.
  • Keywords
    autoregressive moving average processes; forecasting theory; mathematics computing; neural nets; time series; moving average components; neural networks; nonlinear autoregressive models; nonlinear time series forecasting; Artificial neural networks; Biological neural networks; Feedforward neural networks; Forecasting; Media; Silicon; Time series analysis; Artificial neural networks; forecasting; moving averages; nonlinear time series; prediction;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Journal_Title
    Latin America Transactions, IEEE (Revista IEEE America Latina)
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • ISSN
    1548-0992
  • Type

    jour

  • DOI
    10.1109/TLA.2015.7273790
  • Filename
    7273790