Assessment of electricity price uncertainty impact on the operation of multi-carrier energy systems

Today, there are serious trends to use all potentials of the available energy carriers through the concept of energy hubs. However, different types of inherent uncertainties in these systems are the main challenge for utilisation of energy hubs. Furthermore, a framework is presented to analyse the multi-carrier energy systems under five zones of uncertainty in order to achieve the maximum electricity profits. For example, it is shown that the profit of the system is <;8.5% despite the 50% of uncertainty in the state without combined heat and power (CHP) while system earns a profit of at least 12.8 in the state with CHP. The Monte Carlo simulation method has used to generate different scenarios. The proposed design methodology decides on which model is suitable for hub. It includes detailed models for transducer performance and hub using the mean and variance of profits and assess of their impact individually. The model also considers information on energy products used as per-unit form. Price and electricity markets have intended as in the day-ahead and real-time pricing with three types of tariffs during the day.