Statistical method for cyclone probabilistic assessment

Cyclonic phenomena are very complex, being characterized by different tracks, different maximum wind velocity during cyclone evolution, different wind field distributions, different durations. During the design of structure at a particular location, determining the cyclone associated to a certain return period at that site remains an hard task. In this paper, a rigorous methodology is outlined, based on inverse first order reliability method (IFORM) to identify the cyclone associated to design relevant return periods. By hydrodynamic simulations, is evaluated the effect on environmental variables of interest: sea state parameters, current velocity, storm surge. All passages of the present method are described, applied to a particular case study.