Predicting the technological paths in automotive industry and the environmental impacts of electrification of automotive industry in selected OECD countries

First, this paper reviews the literature of technology competition in car industry. Secondly, technology forecasting method used in this study utilized retrieved patent data to define the technological life cycles of battery electric vehicle technology. Thirdly, life cycle assessment (LCA) is made for six selected OECD countries (Estonia, Finland, France Iceland, Israel and Norway) in order to compare the environmental impacts of internal combustion engine and electric vehicle technologies with widely different electricity generation mixes. For cars, the life cycle assessment considers the environmental impact throughout the entire life cycle, from raw material extraction and acquisition, through energy and material production and manufacturing, to use and end-of-life treatment and final disposal. For fuels and electricity, the whole life cycle from cradle to gate is considered. The results show significant differences in the environmental impacts between the countries. In addition of analyzing industrial dynamics and environmental impacts, we also provide policy recommendations for how government´s policy can support the transition towards more sustainable automobile transportation.