The adoption and diffusion of common-pool resource-dependent technologies: The case of aquifer Thermal Energy Storage systems

The dynamics of technology diffusion and adoption have been studied extensively. There is broad agreement on the typical patterns that these dynamics follow, and models are readily available to forecast future technology adoption and diffusion. Most of the existing research, however, has not considered the dynamics of adoption and diffusion for technologies which rely on a common-pool resource (CPR). The sustainable exploitation of a common-pool resource imposes a natural limit on usage, and exploitation beyond this limit may deteriorate the resource. Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) systems use aquifers in the subsurface for space heating and cooling. Although these systems may significantly reduce the energy consumption of buildings, over-adoption or exploitation of the aquifer will yield thermal interactions between systems, reducing their efficiencies. The aim of this paper is to provide insight into the adoption dynamics of ATES systems, notably in regards to the effects of overexploitation on subsequent adoption. We present a hybrid model that connects an agent-based model of ATES adoption with a geohydrologic model of the aquifer, including building energy flows. We explore the behavior of the model across a range of alternative parameterizations, identify typical dynamics, and analyze the conditions under which each of the dynamics occurs.