How the diffusion of smart phones will change public opinion surveys in Taiwan: The feasibility of using blended samples of landline and cell-phone numbers for telephone surveys

Since the 1980s, the telephone survey has become a primary form for gathering public opinion or market information. Polling can help understand the general population´s opinions, consumers´ behaviors or predict election results. Based on AAPOR, it became clear that most telephone surveys of the general population would require the combination of a sample reached via landline and one reached via cell phone in the US. There is a similar trend of the cell phone-only users as compared to the rate seen in the US. By 2009, Taiwan´s mobile phone penetration hovered near 110%, with fixed line usage at a steady 55%. By 2014, more than 50% of Taiwanese own smart phones. As a result, public opinion and market researchers have some advantages yet face some challenges in conducting Internet and phone surveys. Sixteen firms in Taiwan are qualified and sufficiently established to be members of ESOMAR, the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research. This industry, market and public opinion research, is facing both growth and challenges given current mobile phone and mobile internet technology development. In Taiwan, cell phone-only usage is increasing, especially among the young generation. However, related research regarding ways in which the diffusion of smart phone and cell phone usage would change the method of gathering of public opinions, and methods for blending samples of landline and mobile phone numbers to get better data are lacking for academic or professional fields in Taiwan. Thus in this study, the researcher will design and launch pilot studies to interview public opinion company owners in Taiwan to investigate ways to cope with the trend toward a cell-only generation. In addition, the researcher launched a pre-test survey and used participant observation records via auditing the telephone survey process to further investigating this issue.