Title :
Predicting the outcomes of every process for which an asymptotically accurate stationary predictor exists is impossible
Author :
Daniil Ryabko;Boris Ryabko
Author_Institution :
INRIA Lille, France
fDate :
6/1/2015 12:00:00 AM
Abstract :
The problem of prediction consists in forecasting the conditional distribution of the next outcome given the past. Assume that the source generating the data is such that there is a stationary predictor whose error converges to zero (in a certain sense). The question is whether there is a universal predictor for all such sources, that is, a predictor whose error goes to zero if any of the sources that have this property is chosen to generate the data. This question is answered in the negative, contrasting a number of previously established positive results concerning related but smaller sets of processes.
Keywords :
"Hidden Markov models","Loss measurement","Time series analysis","Forecasting","Markov processes","Probability distribution","Stock markets"
Conference_Titel :
Information Theory (ISIT), 2015 IEEE International Symposium on
Electronic_ISBN :
2157-8117
DOI :
10.1109/ISIT.2015.7282646