A study on optimal operation of microgrids considering the uncertainty of renewable generation and load by use of duration curves

The renewable generation such as photovoltaic(PV) power and wind power generation and load in the microgrid may have considerable forecast errors with uncertainties of solar radiation, wind speed and local demands. In this paper, scenarios are selected corresponding to a specified confidence interval by Monte Carlo method for considering the uncertainty. The methodology to reflect the degree of uncertainties of renewable generation and load according to their patterns using the duration curves of the forecasted generation and load is presented when a stochastic solution is achieved by Monte Carlo method. Mathematical equations for optimal operation of a microgrid with diesel, CHP, PV, and Wind generations including BESS are formulated using the mixed integer programming. Through the case study for a microgrid with uncertainties, it is shown that this stochastic methodology can be applied effectively for optimal operation of a microgrid with uncertainties through the case study.