The effect of increased photovoltaic energy generation on electricity price and capacity in South Africa

Solar energy is a much discussed renewable resource in South Africa. Possible reasons are on-going energy crisis as well as very high solar radiation intensities in the country. Among numerous technical challenges with increase of solar energy capacity, countries like South Africa must also be very concerned with the cost issues related to renewable energy. In the last decade the cost of photovoltaic (PV) systems has been reduced significantly and the prices are still dropping. Although South Africa can benefit from high solar intensities which can reduce levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the solar PV, for the costs involved it is very difficult to compete with coal which is abundant and very cheap in the country. This study shows the influence of penetrating solar PV to the average system LCOE. Optimization programming techniques were employed and a model of South African electricity generation was developed.