New metrics for assessing fuel price and technological uncertainty in microgrid power planning

This paper proposes a series of new metrics for the power planning assessment of microgrid considering fuel price and technological uncertainty. These metrics include economic indices and price risk indices. At first, an improved economic indices considering fluctuation of future units construction costs and operation costs during the microgrid planning horizon is proposed, in which the price and technological uncertainty is assessed by a stochastic process model based on the Real Option Theory. Then, the energy price risk indices are proposed to evaluate the possible risk of financial loss. Finally, a simulation on an islanded microgrid model shows that, the metrics can assess the uncertainty of fuel price and technological progress in microgird power planning, and support the decision-making for investors, even provide a reference for energy policy making to promote the development of low-carbon electricity.