A method for estimating wind power ramps during ice storm

Wind power has become one of the most popular renewables recently. The unscheduled quick fluctuations in wind power, called ramps, bring many problems to power system. Conventional ramp event forecasting methods focus on sudden change in wind speed and direction. However, in some special cases such as ice storm, icing event causes changes in wind turbine output and facility failure rate. The output of wind farm during ice storm should be calculated along with simulation of ice accretion on turbines and transmission lines. This helps to forecast wind power ramps more reasonably. This paper proposes a method for calculating power output of wind farm during ice storm. Modification on wind turbine output model considering air density change and icing event, failure estimation on wind turbines and transmission lines and wake models are included. Case study shows that icing event has quite an important impact on output of wind farm and the magnitude of ramps decreases because of the decline in wind turbine output.