Designing budget forecasting and revision system using optimization methods

The sales procedures are the most important factors for keeping companies alive and profitable. So sales and budget sales are considered as important parameters influencing all other decision variables in an organization. Therefore, poor sales forecasting can lead to great losses in an organization caused by inaccurate and non-comprehensive production and human resource planning. Hence, in this research a coherent solution has been proposed for forecasting sales besides refining and revising it continuously by ANFIS¹ model with consideration of time series relations. Data has been collected from the public and accessible annual financial reports related to a famous Iranian company. Moreover, for more accuracy in forecasting, the solution has been examined by BPN² and PSO³ as optimization methods. The comparison between taken prediction and the real data shows that PSO method can optimize some parts of prediction in contrast to the rest which is more coincident to the output of BPN analysis. As a consequence, a hybrid integrated system including both has been designed. This system uses them depending on their abilities to optimize each part, so it can produce more precise results relatively.