Game Theory with Probabilistic Prediction for Conflict Resolution in Air Traffic Management

In the course of flight, conflict in the air between aircraft happens sometimes with air transportation increase. It is an urgent problem to solve flight conflict for air traffic management. In this paper, to increase overall air transport system efficiency and enhance safety, probabilistic prediction has been considered as an effective method to characterize the conflict resolution for realizing benefits. Firstly, it established a cooperative game model, player who has been assigned different statuses by a priority ranking mechanism proposed, will take others´ preferences into consideration. Then, we use the probabilistic prediction model to describe the game conflict resolution. To the cooperative nature, player will choose its conflict-free strategy, ensure that the whole system could reach a socially coherent compromise, namely resolving the conflict meanwhile satisfying individual´s preferences. Finally, theoretical analysis and numerical study are undertaken to show the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.