SD modelling of healthcare sc in rural parts of Uttarakhand, India

This paper presents the system dynamic modelling and simulation of folic acid tabs supply chain in rural areas in district Haridwar, Uttarakhand, India. During the investigation and data collection, an enormous shortage of folic acid tabs was observed at various stages leaving a large population unserved. The stock out occurs due to uncertain lead time and demand. Therefore the model is developed with a safety stock at each stage on Stella® platform. The simulation has been run for a time span of twelve months. Further sensitivity analysis is performed showing the effects of lead time on the stock at women´s hospital, schools and community health centers. The results show the elimination of stock out of medicine at all the downstream stages maintaining a safety stock. The current work may support the strategists to take essential steps to improve the sustainability of the healthcare supply chain in parts rural of the state by diminishing the shortage of medicines.