Energy for 2030 scenarios for a sustainable future: A case of Sri Lanka

Literature states that most successful corporations and nations have used scenarios as a tool to lead the energy sector. Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to develop scenarios of Sri Lankan energy future to picture the Sri Lankan renewable energy sector by year 2030. This study presents a seven step scenario development model to develop scenarios. The seven steps comprises defining objective of scenario planning, environmental scanning, key factor analysis, prioritizing the key factors, define the assumptions in writing scenarios, framework scenarios, and finally elaborate scenarios. Following the stated seven steps four scenarios named `Land of Republic,´ `Green Paradise,´ `Drowning Island´ and Black Island´ were developed. The scenarios were developed base on two key variables. The path to the scenario, the outcome of the scenario and finally the early warning signals were presented when describing the scenarios.