A novel approach for electric load curve holistic modelling and simulation

This paper presents a novel approach of an electric load curve simulator using a set of grey box models that results to an efficient trade-off between complete and complex physical models and fast simplified statistical models. The input parameters are macroscopic data coming from large databases such as national census, DSO´s client information and meteorological data such as temperature or irradiation data. The problem of matching between the different databases is investigated to assess comparable load curves. Validation is performed using load measurements at the medium voltage level. Once the model is calibrated it can be turned into a good prediction tool useful for planning studies since it permits easily to incorporate the evolution of usages, the characteristics of consumption devices, as well as the evolution of the building´s characteristics.