Predicting donations using a forecasting-simulation model

This paper presents a methodology to estimate donations for non-profit hunger relief organizations. These organizations are committed to alleviating hunger around the world and depend mainly on the benevolence of donors to achieve their goals. However, the quantity and frequency of donations they receive varies considerably over time which presents a challenge in their fight to end hunger. We develop a simulation model to determine the expected quantity of food donations received per month in a multi-warehouse distribution network. The simulation model is based on a state-space model for exponential smoothing. A numerical study is performed using data from a non-profit hunger relief organization. The results show that good estimation accuracies can be achieved with this approach. Furthermore, non-profit hunger relief organizations can use the approach discussed in this paper to predict donations for proactive planning.