Abstract :
Many methodologies exist for predicting electrical MV network reliability, in order to optimise investment. These approaches often assume that while individual assets will age and become less reliable, system operations will in the future be similar to how they are today. However, due to the advent of the smart grid, historic averages could cease to be useful. There exists a need for practical asset management solutions that can be used to predict how robust distribution networks will be in the future. This would need to account for both normal conditions and stressed situations due to severe weather, when scarcity of resources in available staff available to perform repair actions may pose additional challenges. This paper describes a new reliability-based model specifically developed for predicting distribution network risk and resilience under severe weather conditions and in the presence of resource constraints. The presented system is designed to be integrated with existing asset management software, and therefore inform business decision making. Case studies will show that the consequence of faults can increase significantly for some assets, if the required investment is deferred.
