A Stochastic Fluid Flow Model of the Operation and Maintenance of Power Generation Systems

A tool to inform strategic decision making on electricity market bidding prices, based on prediction of long-term system operation, degradation, and maintenance, is described. The operation and maintenance of a hydro-power generation system is modeled using a bounded stochastic fluid flow model with special behavior at the boundaries. The stationary distribution for the model and useful time-dependent performance measures are derived. The application potential of the model is illustrated through a practical industry-derived example modeling the operation of a hydro-power generator, in which a number of operation strategies are compared using several performance measures.